Crude oil price trend around the hottest inventory

2022-08-19
  • Detail

Crude oil price trend around inventory

crude oil price trend chart

this week, the price of WTI crude oil futures contract in March in New York fell above $40/barrel, and received less than $36 on the 11th. The author believes that the sharp increase in inventory led to the emergence of a positive spread structure of crude oil futures prices, which directly suppressed the contract prices in recent months. As the world economy has not yet shown signs of recovery, crude oil inventories may still increase, so the oil price will remain volatile, and it does not rule out the possibility of gradually declining downward, and the use of such films in liquid crystal displays, solar cells and other fields is quite important

crude oil inventory increased significantly

since the crude oil price fell from the high price of 147 US dollars/barrel on July 14 last year, the inventory at that time did not increase, but under the increasing impact of the financial crisis, consumption decreased significantly, at the same time, crude oil inventory increased significantly. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased from 290.2 million barrels on September 19, 2008 to 350.8 million barrels on February 6, an increase of 60.58 million barrels. (see Figure 1) the inventory of Cushing, the delivery site of WTI crude oil, increased rapidly to 34.9 million barrels, an increase of 20.52 million barrels or 143% from 14.38 million barrels on October 3, 2008. The current inventory has more than doubled over the same period last year

the continuous increase in the inventory of WTI crude oil delivery places has seriously restricted the crude oil price, suppressed the recent WTI oil price, and formed a structure of low WTI crude oil price in recent months and high water rise in forward months. This price difference has set a record. Taking the closing price on the 11th as an example, the price in March was $35.94, the price in April was $42.47, and the premium in April was $7.53. The author counted the price difference between the crude oil in the recent month and the next recent month of WTI crude oil in the past 10 years. In the past 9 years, the range of subtracting the price difference between the next recent month and the last month is -3.35 to 3.16 US dollars/barrel. In 2008, there were two close positions, resulting in a sharp increase in the price gap. The current price difference is $7.53, far above the normal range of nearly a decade

positive 1. There are many kinds of copper: the tensile strength of oxygen free copper (pure copper) is 245 (3) 15n/mm2, and the price difference structure leads to a sharp fluctuation.

this positive price difference structure of near low, far high and long-term sharp rise shows that the oil price is difficult to rise in a long period of time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the global oil demand in 2009 was expected to decrease by 980000 barrels per day, which was greater than the previous estimate of 500000 barrels per day, due to the sharp weakening of the world's macroeconomic growth rate, resulting in sluggish demand. The decrease in demand has led to a substantial increase in inventory, indicating that the spot supply is sufficient, the supply exceeds the demand, and the excess spot has nowhere to go, so we have to replenish the inventory. Under this condition, the spot price and the futures price in recent months are difficult to rise. The market expects the forward price to rise, but once the delivery is due in recent months, the pressure on inventory will be temporarily relieved, and the oil price will generally rebound to a certain extent. As the delivery period is approaching, the next recent month contract has become a recent month contract, and sufficient inventory will once again suppress the recent oil price, causing the oil price to fall again, so repeatedly, resulting in a sharp fluctuation pattern in the oil price. It is worth mentioning that this structure is very disadvantageous for bulls, and each move will increase the cost. Only when inventories begin to decrease and this structure is dissolved will the downward momentum of oil prices disappear

since there is no sign of recovery in the world economy at present, it is expected that crude oil consumption will remain in a depressed state. In this case, the oil price will still maintain a sharp fluctuation, and the possibility of the economy deteriorating again and the oil price falling gradually is not ruled out

note: this reprint indicates the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information. It does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms the authenticity of its internal discharge rate characteristics

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI