Crude oil will still oscillate and rebound after t

2022-08-21
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After the sharp fall, crude oil will still oscillate and rebound

since the end of August, the international crude oil price has increased by more than 20% in just two and a half months. During this period, the two interest rate meetings of the Federal Reserve have become an important factor leading the oil price. It is precisely because the Federal Reserve launched the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy that crude oil prices have gone out of two waves of rapid rise. In addition, the strong demand for crude oil from developing countries such as China has also become another driving factor for the rise of oil prices. After entering November, the Federal Reserve fulfilled its previous commitment and decided to gradually purchase treasury bonds with a total amount of $600billion, thereby injecting liquidity into the market, which also pushed up oil prices in one fell swoop. On November 11, the intraday price of the main December contract of NYMEX hit a new high of nearly 25 months. Although the oil price fell by nearly $3 in the following trading day, the author believes that this is mainly due to the impact of China's domestic monetary tightening expectations, which led to the emergence of profit taking positions before. However, under the background of the gradual recovery of global crude oil demand, the weakening of the dollar and the strengthening of technical form, the short-term rapid decline cannot change the trend of the late crude oil oscillation and recovery

since this year, the international crude oil price has oscillated in a relatively narrow range, mainly because the global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals have remained roughly the same. In terms of supply, the production restriction measures of OPEC member countries after the financial crisis have greatly restricted the global supply of crude oil, and non OPEC member countries have also controlled the crude oil production to a certain extent. However, we see that for the sake of their own interests, with the rising oil prices, the production restrictions of these oil producing countries have gradually weakened, and the supply has increased steadily. Despite the continuous release of supply, the oil price shows signs of gradually rising, which is mainly due to the increase in global crude oil demand. In terms of demand, China and other developing countries play a leading role in the growth of global crude oil demand. Under the situation that the crude oil demand of developed countries is difficult to recover, as the second largest country of global crude oil consumption, China's strong demand for Crude Oil supports the growth rate of plastics, which is faster than that of other industrial materials, and the oil price continues to rise. China's recent data on crude oil imports, production and processing volume verify this fact. Although the data released by China Customs recently showed that China's crude oil import volume in October was 16.39 million tons, equivalent to 3.86 million barrels per day, 32% lower than the 5.67 million barrels per day imported in September, and 15% lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in nearly 19 months, this was mainly because after the domestic crude oil import volume reached a record high in September, oil refining enterprises began to produce with inventory, which led to a sharp decline in import volume in October. According to the overall data from January to October this year, crude oil imports increased by 19.5% year-on-year. In addition, considering the recent diesel shortage in China, crude oil imports will still pick up during the year

in the case of a substantial increase in imports, domestic crude oil production maintained a moderate growth. Statistics show that the domestic crude oil output in October reached 17.76 million tons, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year; From January to October, domestic crude oil production increased by 6.1% year-on-year to 168.06 million tons. With the steady growth of imports and domestic production, the domestic crude oil processing volume data can reflect the current situation of the overall domestic demand for crude oil. In October, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 37.04 million tons, equivalent to 8.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 12.2% over the same period last year, and the daily processing volume reached a record high. In addition, from January to October this year, the domestic crude oil processing volume increased by 13.9% over the same period last year, reaching 347.95 million tons, equivalent to 8.355 million barrels per day. As winter approaches, the growth of heating oil demand in the United States and even Europe will greatly enhance the growth of crude oil demand. Therefore, the author believes that under the background of the recovery of global crude oil demand, at least by the end of this year, the international crude oil price will regain its rise after the short-term decline caused by profit taking is too efficient and effective

in addition, although the US dollar index has rebounded in recent trading days, this does not change the fact that the US dollar has weakened in the medium and long term. Looking back on the overall trend of the US dollar index since the beginning of this year, it is not difficult to find that since the beginning of the year, due to the continuous outbreak of debt crisis in European countries led by Greece, investors have been selling euros and buying dollars. Under this effect, the US dollar showed a steady rise in the first half of the year. However, with the gradual weakening of the European debt crisis, the US dollar index began to decline in the second half of the year, especially after the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 21, the US dollar index formed a situation of breaking down, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. The author believes that the reason why the United States allows the dollar to depreciate is that for the United States, this is an effective way to get rid of the trade and fiscal deficits. As the dollar is the reserve currency of most countries in the world, in the case of high domestic fiscal deficits in the United States, the depreciation of the dollar will lead to the shrinkage of national assets holding U.S. debt, which virtually reduces the total debt of the United States. In addition, the depreciation of the US dollar will make American exports more competitive, and the increase in export volume will bring vitality to American export enterprises to a certain extent, and then provide more employment opportunities, which will help the government solve the problem of high unemployment and alleviate the current situation of long-term high trade deficit. Therefore, the recent rebound of the US dollar can only be seen as a correction for the continuous decline in the previous period, and cannot change the fact that the US dollar has weakened in the medium and long term. The weakening of the US dollar will support the further strengthening of oil prices

from the perspective of the overall trend of crude oil, after a long period of Interval Oscillation, crude oil showed a breakthrough rise. From a technical point of view, if the interval oscillation lasts for a long time, once it is effectively broken, the upper edge of the previous interval will become an important support in the later stage. It can be seen that the current technical form of crude oil is relatively strong, which has also become a technical basis for the later strengthening of oil prices

to sum up, "sustainable development is an important part of our innovation work. The global demand for crude oil gradually rebounds, especially China's strong demand for crude oil will support the continuous rise of oil prices in the later stage. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar index and the strong technical level of crude oil will limit the current round of international crude oil prices. The construction of the new material industry standard system will further implement the" State Council's plan on printing and Issuing the reform plan for deepening standardization " The decline range is required. In the later stage, the overall oil price will maintain the pull-up situation after the correction, and the oscillation recovery will be the main tone of the crude oil market in the future

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